PowerPoint Presentation

[Audio] Welcome to this briefing on the updated temporary accommodation model for Glasgow. The model has been systematically updated to reflect changes in Glasgow's housing system and homelessness trends since 2021. This update is important in the context of a 15% increase in homelessness presentation in the last year alone. Arneil Johnston were commissioned by the H-S-C-P to review the balance of temporary accommodation options needed across the City including the delivery of emergency dispersed and supported accommodation The modelling tool tests the impact of reshaping the provision of temporary accommodation over the next 10 years aligned to wider objectives about rapid rehousing. On this basis the model also projects the % settled tenancies that should be allocated to homeless households to achieve R-R-T-P ambitions providing a roadmap for transformation and change in the delivery of homelessness services..

[Audio] Arneil Johnston was commissioned by the H-S-C-P to assess the City's temporary accommodation model to ensure that it meets the needs of homeless households complies with advisory standards and delivers best value. The review focused on defining how temporary accommodation services need to be shaped in the future to ensure that homeless households access settled housing as quickly as possible and with the right support to ensure that they sustain their housing outcome To achieve this Arneil Johnston have worked with the H-S-C-P to build a temporary accommodation model which assesses the balance of options needed locally to support homeless households including: Rapid access accommodation Dispersed accommodation Supported accommodation Housing First The model assesses how much temporary accommodation is needed in across the City and what support should be available to meet the needs of homeless households. The first stage in the review focused heavily on developing a better understanding the needs of homeless households so that the future temporary accommodation options can be designed to deliver good outcomes..

[Audio] To test the scale and pace of change that can be achieved by Glasgow's temporary accommodation model a transitions model has been developed to provide a baseline plan for delivery over the next 10 years. The new temporary accommodation model aims to offer a better range of temporary accommodation options in Glasgow and to use these options more effectively. To achieve this a range of temporary accommodation pathways have been designed which align to the support needs of homeless people in the City. Temporary accommodation projections have been developed based on a detailed analysis of applicant need which is projected forward to reflect assumptions on prevention and length of stay in temporary accommodation. Applying assumptions on length of stay determines how many units of temporary accommodation will become available each year relative to need. Shortfalls and surpluses in temporary accommodation by pathway are calculated as a result. The model also establishes number of settled tenancies that require to be allocated to homeless households to enable a target length of stay in temporary accommodation to be achieved.

[Audio] Six temporary accommodation pathways have been designed to meet the support needs of homeless households and to enable the H-S-C-P to make optimum use of temporary accommodation resources across the City. Each temporary accommodation pathways is aligned to the support needs of service users. The design principles and target client group for each temporary accommodation pathway are as follows Pathway 1 is Rapid Access/Emergency Accommodation. This is a B&B avoidance model for those facing housing crisis or those who are unable or unwilling to engage with support services Pathway 2 is dispersed accommodation. This accommodation is the cornerstone of TA provision and is on offer to applicants with no to low support needs as a fast track to settled accommodation Pathway 3 is shared accommodation. It is targeted at single person applicants with no to low support needs and who may be in employment or education Pathway 4 is interim supported accommodation. This pathway provides accommodation with support for those with moderate to high support needs who are able and willing to engage with support services Pathway 5 is the Housing First model. This accommodation is targeted at those with complex needs and multiple disadvantage who require a wraparound support service to enable sustainment in settled housing Pathway 6 is residential supported accommodation. This accommodation is targeted to those are unable to sustain a mainstream tenancy in the community and who require permanent accommodation-based support services.

[Audio] To determine the scale of demand for each temporary accommodation pathway detailed assessment of the housing support needs profile of the homeless population in Glasgow was performed. To ensure that the most robust assessment possible was delivered every source of data which captures the housing support needs of homeless households was considered including H-L-1 statistics the H-S-C-P database on temporary accommodation placements and support need data on homeless households in B&B. Furthermore the professional assessment of frontline homelessness caseworkers was captured in an exercise which involved a retrospective review of homeless households against a pre-defined housing support need matrix. The outcomes of this analysis was combined to conclude that: 80% of homeless households in Glasgow have no-low housing support needs and would benefit from dispersed accommodation in a community setting 16% of homeless households have moderate-high housing support needs and would benefit from interim accommodation where a structured support plan enables successful sustainment in settled housing 4% of homeless households have complex needs and would benefit from Housing First (2%) or Residential Support (2%)..

[Audio] Establishing a detailed evidence base of the need for temporary accommodation is the first central aspect of defining the temporary accommodation model. Baseline demand for the temporary accommodation model is established using an average of the last 2 years presentations. In 2022/23 6 742 homeless applications and in 2023/24 there were 7 725 applications. This gives a 2-year average of 7 234. 6% of annual homeless applicants lose contact with the homelessness service before a full assessment of need is achieved. Based on the 2022/23 homelessness statistics the average length of stay in temporary accommodation for homelessness households is 41 weeks 80% of homeless applicants in Glasgow are assessed as unintentionally homeless and eligible for an offer of settled accommodation.

[Audio] A current snapshot of temporary accommodation stock in Glasgow reveals that the H-S-C-P provide 3 026 units with almost ¾ of provision (73%) offering dispersed accommodation in the community. 12% of provision offers emergency accommodation and is split over 15 projects. A further 12% of temporary accommodation stock is offered as interim or supported accommodation. This provision is split over 21 supported projects across the City..

[Audio] The temporary accommodation model assesses the need for settled and temporary accommodation units by area property size and support pathways over the next 10 years. It has been designed to enable a number of scenarios to be tested including: assumptions on prevention and the % social housing allocations to homeless households the balance between different forms of temporary accommodation provision including the relationship between dispersed and interim support models the role and purpose of temporary accommodation including pathways client groups length of stay and resettlement model the role of alternative accommodation models including residential supported tenancies shared tenancies and rapid access accommodation models. The model also projects the percentage and number of allocations to settled tenancies required to meet annual homelessness demand and to address the backlog of homeless households in temporary accommodation over the 10-year projection period. The following slides detail the model inputs and assumptions which drive the projections for temporary accommodation..

[Audio] To translate the need for temporary tenancies into temporary accommodation units the temporary accommodation modelling tool works on the following basis: 1. Establish the backlog of homeless households awaiting settled housing projecting forward how this backlog will be cleared over the next 10 years 2. Project forward the annual need for temporary accommodation over the next 10 years (adjusting for lost contacts prevention activity and forecasted changes in demand) 3. Calculate the total need for temporary accommodation over a 10-year period including backlog and newly arising need 4. Disaggregate demand for temporary accommodation by temporary accommodation pathway area and property size 5. Apply an occupancy rate and target length of stay for each temporary accommodation pathway 6. Define the number of units required in each pathway by property size type and area.

[Audio] As well as calculating the annual flow of homeless households the temporary accommodation modelling tool also measures how the backlog of homeless households in temporary accommodation will be addressed over the 10-year projection period a key element of the rapid rehousing plan in Glasgow. The total backlog of homeless households awaiting an offer of settled housing in Glasgow on 31st March 2024 was 4 509 households. This includes: 3 672 households who have no and/or low support needs and who require dispersed accommodation 734 households who have moderate to high support needs and who required support accommodation 92 households with complex needs who require access to a Housing First tenancy 92 households with complex needs who require access to permanent residential supported housing The temporary accommodation model is designed to scenario test options on the length of time it will take to address and eliminate the homeless backlog across the City. The baseline model assumes that the backlog will be fully addressed over the next 10 years and across each temporary accommodation pathway. It is assumed that 15% of backlog need will be addressed each year in the first 3 years of the model with a further 8% reduction per annum thereafter..

[Audio] The starting position for newly arising need for temporary tenancies has been established by calculating the average number of presentations over the last 2 years which namely 7 234 applications This annual figure is adjusted to remove repeat applications which reduces the year 1 annual need figure to 6 874. The model then accounts for the 6% of applicants who lose contact with the service before an assessment decision is made. Annual projections of newly arising homelessness applicants are then adjusted to reflect a major objective of Glasgow's R-R-T-P strategy namely to reduce homelessness demand by 20% over the next decade. Applying these assumptions the model then calculates newly arising annual demand for temporary accommodation each year for 10-year projection period of the model. Baseline newly arising need is projected at 6 461 households in year 1 reducing to 5 086 households in year 10..

[Audio] The annual backlog figure is then added to the annual number of new applicants projected to need temporary accommodation in Glasgow each year. This total figure is then adjusted for the number of households who will not accept temporary accommodation from the H-S-C-P but who will choose to make alternative arrangements of their own until an offer of settled accommodation is made. Detailed analysis of the current duty list held by the H-S-C-P versus the number of households residing in temporary tenancies reveals that on average 70% of all homeless applicants opt to accept temporary accommodation. Applying a 70% acceptance rate to the total annual homelessness need (both backlog and newly arising need) results in a year 1 temporary accommodation requirement of 5 091 tenancies reducing to 3 850 by year 10 of the projection period. For the purpose of modelling it is assumed that all households with complex needs and who require either Housing First or residential accommodation will accept the offer of provision made to them..

[Audio] A key aspect of the temporary accommodation model is to align the support needs of homeless applicants with the temporary accommodation pathway that best meets their individual requirements. Total annual need for temporary accommodation is profiled according to the proportion of homeless households in each support need pathway. This includes the 78% of households who require emergency accommodation at the point of presentation (Rapid Access Accommodation). Over and above the initial use of Rapid Access Accommodation 80% of homeless applicants who have low or no support needs will require dispersed accommodation with 16% requiring interim supported accommodation. The model assumes that the service users who have been categorised into Pathway 5 (Housing First) and Pathway 6 (HSCP commissioned residential housing) do not require temporary accommodation as their needs should be met in permanent settled or supported housing. These households are therefore not included in the overall calculation for temporary accommodation..

[Audio] In order to translate demand for temporary tenancies into units of accommodation the number of tenancies required is divided by accommodation turnover rates (in other words the number of times a temporary tenancy becomes vacant). Turnover levels will vary according to the type of accommodation (in other words emergency rapid access dispersed and interim housing) aligned to a target length of stay for each category of applicants. Turnover rates have been calculated using the current average length of stay in each accommodation type across Glasgow. Using this analysis as well as applying assumptions for each accommodation pathway assumptions on the target length of stay which should be applied to each accommodation type have been developed. This reflects how each temporary accommodation pathway should function aligned to the support needs of homeless households. It has been assumed that the length of time that households spend in Rapid Access accommodation will reduce form 8 weeks in year 1 to 4 weeks by year 10. The year 1 starting point is based on the current average length of stay in B&B accommodation. The total current length of stay in dispersed accommodation is 41 weeks. Aligned to the objectives in the Glasgow R-R-T-P model a target length of stay of 21 weeks has been assumed. For those who require supported accommodation a target length of stay of 26 weeks is applied to provide a sufficient period to enable housing and underlying support needs to be met by a structured support plan focused on sustainment in settled housing..

[Audio] The model then translates the requirement for temporary tenancies into the number of units required by applying the assumptions on length of stay. The following profile outlines the shift in the number of units between Year 1-10 driven by reductions in length of stay. In year 1 3 850 temporary accommodation units are required including 601 rapid access units 3 157 dispersed units and 400 supported accommodation units. This reduces to 1 753 temporary accommodation units by year 10 including 227 rapid access units 1 223 dispersed units and 303 supported accommodation units.

[Audio] The model also calculates the requirement for each temporary accommodation pathway into the number of units required by applying the assumptions on length of stay. The following profile outlines the shift in the number of units by pathway between Year 1-10 driven by reductions in length of stay..

[Audio] The total number of Rapid Access units required in Year 1 is 601. There are currently 378 units of Emergency Accommodation across 15 projects in Glasgow managed either by the H-S-C-P or by commissioned providers. The graph illustrates the impact of a declining length of stay on the requirement for Rapid Access accommodation in Glasgow. In Year 1 a significant shortfall of -223 units is evident. This shortfall is eradicated by year 4 due to decreases in demand as a result of prevention and by reducing length of stay. By year 10 when the target length of stay of 4 weeks is achieved a surplus of 151 rapid access accommodation units is evident..

[Audio] The total number of dispersed accommodation units required in Year 1 is 3 157. There are currently 2 210 units of Dispersed Accommodation in Glasgow predominately through leases with local RSLs. The graph illustrates the impact of a declining length of stay on the requirement for Dispersed Accommodation in Glasgow. In Year 1 a significant shortfall of 947 dispersed units is evident shifting to a surplus of 28 units by Year 5. The increasing turnover of Dispersed Accommodation from 41 weeks to 21 weeks over the next decade is the catalyst for this dramatic shift. By year 10 a surplus of 987 dispersed tenancies is evident. Movement in the length of stay in Dispersed Accommodation from 41-21 weeks gives potential to flip up to 1 000 temporary tenancies to settled homes during the 10 year transition period..

[Audio] The graph illustrates the net shortfall and surpluses in dispersed temporary accommodation by area in Years 1 5 and 10 of the model. The model shows that in Year 1 there is significant shortfalls in dispersed accommodation in East Centre Govan South Centre and Castlemilk. By Year 10 as surpluses in Dispersed Accommodation reach 987 units many of these area imbalances are eradicated and in fact only a minor shortfall in the Castlemilk area (-20 units) remains evident..

[Audio] The graph illustrates the net shortfall and surpluses in dispersed temporary accommodation by size in Years 1 5 and 10 of the model. The model shows that in Year 1 there is significant shortfalls in 1-bedroom units which can be offset to some extent by surpluses in 2-bedroom units. Whilst shortfalls in 3-bedroom units are eradicated over the 10-year projection period; shortfalls in 4-bedroom accommodation units are persistent even by year 10.

[Audio] The total number of Supported Accommodation units required in Year 1 is 400. There are currently 364 units of Supported Accommodation in Glasgow across 21 projects managed either by the H-S-C-P or commissioned providers. A shortfall of 36 units of supported accommodation is eradicated by year 4 of the model largely due to reductions in demand via prevention. By year 10 a surplus of 61 supported accommodation units is evident across the City..

[Audio] As well as addressing shortfalls and surpluses in supported accommodation over time there are opportunities to reshape supported accommodation including the creation of smaller psychologically informed environments tailored to key client groups. The outcomes of the temporary accommodation model therefore provides a good basis to work with commissioned providers to design an Interim Accommodation model which meets projected need and offers a wider choice of options by area age and gender in trauma informed environments..

[Audio] The outcomes of the temporary accommodation model show a significant shortfall of accommodation in year 1 (-1 206 units) which as a result of reduction in demand through prevention and a better utilisation of resources by speeding up the length of stay translates into a surplus of 1 199 units by year 9. This includes: A growing surplus of Emergency Accommodation aligned to a more rapid length of stay from a shortfall of -223 units in Year 1 to a surplus of plus 151 units in Year 10 An overall net reduction in dispersed accommodation in Glasgow from a shortfall of -947 units in Year 1 to a surplus of plus 987 units in Year 10 A shortfall of 36 units supported accommodation units in year 1 growing to a surplus of 61 units by year 10 Movement in the length of stay in dispersed accommodation from 41-21 weeks over 10 years gives potential to flip up to 987 temporary tenancies to settled homes.

[Audio] Let's now look at how a reduction in the length of stay for temporary tenancies impacts on the projected demand for settled tenancies. The temporary accommodation model calculates the number of settled tenancies which require to be allocated to homeless households each year to enable the target length of stay in temporary accommodation to be achieved. This number is then calculated as a proportion of all social tenancies available to meet housing need across Glasgow each year. To achieve this the model calculates access to settled accommodation by projecting the number of social tenancies which become available across the R-S-L sector adjusted for the projected delivery of new build housing..

[Audio] To establish the total annual need for settled housing the annual backlog figure is then added to the annual number of new homeless applicants who require settled housing in Glasgow each year. This total figure is then adjusted for the 20% households who are not eligible for assistance each year because they are not homeless or intentionally homeless. Based on a duty to accommodate for 80% of the homeless population in Glasgow a requirement for 5 130 settled tenancies is evident in year 1. As a result of preventative activity this reduces to 3 852 settled tenancies by year 10..

[Audio] On average 6 995 social tenancies become available across the City's R-S-L sector each year based upon a 7% turnover rate (a key assumption in the baseline temporary accommodation model). Furthermore it is estimated that 5 250 new homes will be delivered by Housing Associations via Glasgow's Strategic Housing Investment Plan over the next 10 years averaging around 525 units per annum. Taking into account the turnover created by new housing supply this creates an overall turnover of 99 935 social tenancies over the 10-year projection period with on average 7 520 tenancies available per year..

[Audio] A key modelling assumption relates to the projected turnover of social housing across the City's R-S-L network which has experienced a reducing trend since the pandemic. Detailed analysis of R-S-L turnover rates was performed to establish a prudent but credible assumption of the number of tenancies available each year from the existing social housing stock. Analysis of the turnover of the 48 R-S-Ls who provide settled accommodation to Glasgow's homeless applicants revealed a 5-year average turnover rate of 7.99%. Following the national lockdowns of 2020/21 average turnover across the City has decreased year on year and by 3.1% overall in the last 5 years. Taking this evidence into account it was agreed that a 7% turnover assumption would be a prudent approach to projecting future social housing supply. This assumption can be reviewed across the life of the model if required. This assumption was agreed following scenario analysis using 3 different % turnovers – 7.99% 7.5% and 7% ..

[Audio] Projected annual supply of social housing also includes the estimated delivery of new build completions over the 10-year period. To achieve this analysis was performed to assess historic completion rates over the last 15 years assessing average delivery trends over a 15-year 10 year and 5-year period. This analysis reveals a 17% reduction in social housing completions over the last 15 years which equates to an average annual decrease of 1.13% per year. For the purposes of the model it is assumed this trajectory will continue with a reduction of 1.13% applied to annual completions each year. Annual new build completions are therefore estimated at 552 units in year 1 reducing to 498 units by year 10 of the model. Over the 10-year projection period it is assumed that 5 250 new homes will be delivered by Housing Associations via Glasgow's Strategic Housing Investment Plan..

[Audio] Based on the temporary accommodation model assumptions the model projects the percentage of settled tenancies that require to be allocated to homeless households each year. The proportion of settled tenancies which require to be allocated to transform the homeless service delivery model in Glasgow ranges from 67% in Year 1 to 49% in Year 10. These fluctuations arise as a result of projected changes in homelessness demand and supply (driven largely by the delivery of the S-H-I-P prevention activity and the speed with which homeless households move into settled accommodation). These model outcomes are predicated on a 7% turnover rate in social housing across the City. Over the course of the 10-year projection period on average across Glasgow City 57% of all available social tenancies will require to be allocated to homeless households to enable faster access to settled accommodation. Allocating this proportion of settled tenancies will enable the H-S-C-P to eliminate the backlog of households in temporary accommodation and to drive major reductions in temporary accommodation supply over the next 10 years..

[Audio] Further temporary accommodation model scenarios were performed to assess the impact of a more ambitious assumption on the turnover of social housing across the City over the next decade. Assuming a 7% turnover rate results in an average of 57% of all settled tenancies being allocated to homeless households across the City ranging from 67% in year 1 to 49% in year 10. Assuming a 7.5% turnover rate results in an average of 53% of all settled tenancies being allocated to homeless households across the City ranging from 63% in year 1 to 46% in year 10. Assuming a 7.99% turnover rate results in an average of 50% of all settled tenancies being allocated to homeless households across the City ranging from 60% in year 1 to 43% in year 10. This analysis shows that if the new temporary accommodation model can be delivered not only will the service experiences of homeless households in the City be transformed but notable reduction in the requirement to allocate settled housing to homeless households can be achieved. Continued partnership with R-S-Ls across the City will be require to support this transformation ensuring that over the next 10 years on average 50% of all available social tenancies will be allocated to homeless households enabling faster access to settled accommodation. This partnership will enable the backlog of homeless households in temporary accommodation to be cleared and drive transformation in the delivery of homelessness services..