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Project: Employee Training Program Decision. Week 8: Final Project Mohammed Abdullah (BA 611 20 ) Business Intelligence 2025 SU Professor: Felix Hernandez Date: 24TH June, 2025.
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Introduction to Decision Problem. Company wants to improve employee performance Three options: Technical Training, Soft Skills Training, No Training Uncertain impact on productivity Budget and time required for each option Goal: Find the best decision Use decision tree method for analysis.
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Description of Options. [image] SWuS For Your Resume & Cover Letter ig Oata & Program T Writing apen.
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Possible Outcomes & Uncertainty. outcome uncertainty informative O O O O O O uninformative O O less uncertainty associated with each outcome (smaller circles) leads to sharper inferences more uncertainty associated with each outcome (bigger circles) leads to broader inferences inferred probability.
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Estimated Costs and Payoffs. [image] 25 20 15 80 -5 -10 -15 Payoff Diagram 85 9 95 Long call Short put Spot price 05 110 115 120.
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Probabilities Assigned. The Statistics Assignment Probability Assignment Help.
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Decision Tree Overview. Decision tree analysis in five steps Start with your idea Add chance and decision nodes Expand until you reach end points Calculate tree values Evaluate outcomes asana.
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Technical Skills Training Outcomes. High (50% chance): $30,000 gain Medium (30% chance): $15,000 gain Low (20% chance): $5,000 gain Cost: $10,000 deducted from gains Real payoff = Outcome Gain – $10,000 Expected value to be calculated.
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Soft Skills Training Outcomes. [image] SOFT SKILLS.
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No Training Outcomes. Defining the Payoff Matrix Evolving Strat Perspective Matters Complexity and Dynamics 06 05 02 03 Understanding the payoff Matrix The Importance of Rational Decision-Making Strategies and Iterations.
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Calculations – Expected Values. Technical: EV = (0.5x20,000)+(0.3x5,000)+(0.2x-5,000) = $11,000 Soft Skills: EV = (0.4x17,000)+(0.4x4,000)+(0.2x-5,000) = $7,800 No Training: EV = (0.2x5,000)+(0.5x0)+(0.3x-10,000) = -$1,000 Technical Training gives highest expected value Best decision based on EV But risk also considered.
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Risk Considerations. [image] o (tea. If risk-averse: May prefer Soft Skills (less risk) If risk-neutral: Pick Technical (highest EV) If risk-seeking: Maybe No Training (no cost, but high risk) Company’s risk profile affects decision Must match company’s comfort with uncertainty EV is not only factor.
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Sensitivity Analysis. Changed Technical success chance from 50% to 30% New EV much lower ($4,000) Technical no longer best option Soft Skills may become better Shows decision is sensitive to probability changes Important to review assumptions.
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Final Analysis & Recommendations. THE ART OF TRAINING: BREATHING LIFE INTO TECHNICAL TRAINING —.
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[image] Risk Tolerance Financial Situation Type of Investor Factors Asset Class Preference.
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References. Urbancová, H., Vrabcová, P., Hudáková, M., & Petrů, G. J. (2021). Effective training evaluation: The role of factors influencing the evaluation of effectiveness of employee training and development. Sustainability, 13(5), 2721.https://doi.org/10.3390/su13052721 Rajagopal, N. K., Qureshi, N. I., Durga, S., Ramirez Asis, E. H., Huerta Soto, R. M., Gupta, S. K., & Deepak, S. (2022). Future of business culture: An artificial intelligence‐driven digital framework for organization decision‐making process. Complexity, 2022(1), 7796507.https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/7796507 Chan, A. P., Guan, J., Choi, T. N., Yang, Y., Wu, G., & Lam, E. (2023). Improving safety performance of construction workers through learning from incidents. International journal of environmental research and public health, 20(5), 4570.https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20054570.