A Quick Tour of Maximum-Likelihood Estimation

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Alaska

Florida

Observations

“Which One?”

“Given the data, where did they come from?”

…where did they come from?

S is a set of parameters that describe the parent distribution from which D is most likely to have come.

Common choices are:

The mean Some measure of spread, say The kurtosis (skew)

Analytically: Usually not so easy (solve y = f(x) for x) Computationally: OK most of the time

How do we find S?

L := + inf S_l := 0 For s in S1 x S2 x S3 do: l := Likelihood(S, D); if (l < L) then: L = l; s _l = s; Return L, s_l # ML and location

Florida

X

Alaska

Some drawbacks…

There may be more than one choice of S that maximizes L | S_i | may be large Heuristics such as assuming the parent distribution is of a certain type may quickly lead to the wrong answer “The parent distribution is obviously binomial” “That 5% event will never happen. As a result, we make a Gaussianity assumption.”

Too simple…

Mortgage crisis…

Conclusion