Covid-19 economic recession and the way back to the Old Normal

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COVID-19 CRISIS, CONSEQUENCES AND RECOVERY FACTORS ll m ārs Rimšēvičs , Latvia Istanbul / Turkey September 11-12 , 2021

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Outline

Mother of all Crises Crisis required immediate action Governments fiscal response Effectiveness of the measures Challenges ahead

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COVID -19 crisis required immediate action

Introducing mitigation measures Reorganizing hospital work Providing financial support

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

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Covid-19 crisis is Unique! Why?

Macroeconomic factors (sovereign debt levels, Deficit levels) Investment Rating of the Country (Investment vs Junk) Quality of the Governance Size of the Tourism Sector Available Resources ( Monetary and Fiscal)

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

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[Audio] Visu izšķir pareizie lēmumi. Viegli, protams , teikt. Pēc kara vai kaujas jau visi ir gudri.

The Crisis is about decision taking

“Decision making is the goal-oriented and information-processing-based choice of the desired solution from a more or less identical set of alternatives”. source : Hans-Christian Pfohl, 1977

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

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Stringency of the measures (Stringency Index) Constrain ts of Mobility (Mobility Index)

Strength of Mitigation measures

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

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Stringency of the containment measures

Italy Ireland United Kingdom USA Spain Portugal Greece Cyprus Canada France Australia Germany Romania Netherlands Belgium Hungary Austria Poland South Korea Slovenia Slovakia Denmark Czechia Lithuania Switzerland Luxembourg Latvia Sweden Norway Bulgaria Croatia Iceland Finland Japan New Zealand Estonia 66.935653409090932 66.560738636363396 65.687869318181853 64.51210227272675 64.316079545454414 64.225767045454631 62.609602272727187 62.374602272727081 62.217812499999951 61.754886363636366 60.91463068181838 60.685426136363887 58.572613636363478 58.116619318181662 57.42420454545433 56.377613636363712 55.564346590909174 55.337499999999864 54.658551136363762 54.26048295454536 52.991903409091037 52.975937499999944 52.208323863636316 51.675198863636346 50.8536647727271 49.134119318181817 49.070909090909183 47.650482954545488 46.609431818182081 46.528153409090926 44.452159090909078 43.928125000000179 43.15519886363613 38.577272727272643 37.782585227272541 36.643920454545274

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

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Stringency developments over the 2020

Estonia 43831 43832 43833 43834 43835 43836 43837 43838 43839 43840 43841 43842 43843 43844 43845 43846 43847 43848 43849 43850 43851 43852 43853 43854 43855 43856 43857 43858 43859 43860 43861 43862 43863 43864 43865 43866 43867 43868 43869 43870 43871 43872 43873 43874 43875 43876 43877 43878 43879 43880 43881 43882 43883 43884 43885 43886 43887 43888 43889 43890 43891 43892 43893 43894 43895 43896 43897 43898 43899 43900 43901 43902 43903 43904 43905 43906 43907 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 43968 43969 43970 43971 43972 43973 43974 43975 43976 43977 43978 43979 43980 43981 43982 43983 43984 43985 43986 43987 43988 43989 43990 43991 43992 43993 43994 43995 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22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 22.22 25.93 25.93 25.93 29.63 29.63 29.63 29.63 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 37.96 48.15 48.15 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 Latvia 43831 43832 43833 43834 43835 43836 43837 43838 43839 43840 43841 43842 43843 43844 43845 43846 43847 43848 43849 43850 43851 43852 43853 43854 43855 43856 43857 43858 43859 43860 43861 43862 43863 43864 43865 43866 43867 43868 43869 43870 43871 43872 43873 43874 43875 43876 43877 43878 43879 43880 43881 43882 43883 43884 43885 43886 43887 43888 43889 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2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 11.11 11.11 51.85 54.63 54.63 54.63 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 63.89 63.89 63.89 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 63.89 63.89 63.89 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 61.11 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 41.67 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 28.7 28.7 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 29.63 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 33.33 38.89 38.89 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 42.59 45.37 45.37 45.37 45.37 45.37 45.37 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 53.7 57.41 57.41 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 60.19 Lithuania 43831 43832 43833 43834 43835 43836 43837 43838 43839 43840 43841 43842 43843 43844 43845 43846 43847 43848 43849 43850 43851 43852 43853 43854 43855 43856 43857 43858 43859 43860 43861 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44194 44195 44196 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.56 5.56 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 30.56 39.81 39.81 39.81 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 87.04 87.04 87.04 87.04 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 81.48 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 77.78 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 63.89 63.89 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 52.78 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 27.78 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 30.56 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 34.26 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 54.17 59.72 59.72 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 56.94 56.94 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 74.069999999999993 74.069999999999993 74.069999999999993 74.069999999999993 74.069999999999993 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 Sweden 43831 43832 43833 43834 43835 43836 43837 43838 43839 43840 43841 43842 43843 43844 43845 43846 43847 43848 43849 43850 43851 43852 43853 43854 43855 43856 43857 43858 43859 43860 43861 43862 43863 43864 43865 43866 43867 43868 43869 43870 43871 43872 43873 43874 43875 43876 43877 43878 43879 43880 43881 43882 43883 43884 43885 43886 43887 43888 43889 43890 43891 43892 43893 43894 43895 43896 43897 43898 43899 43900 43901 43902 43903 43904 43905 43906 43907 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 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44134 44135 44136 44137 44138 44139 44140 44141 44142 44143 44144 44145 44146 44147 44148 44149 44150 44151 44152 44153 44154 44155 44156 44157 44158 44159 44160 44161 44162 44163 44164 44165 44166 44167 44168 44169 44170 44171 44172 44173 44174 44175 44176 44177 44178 44179 44180 44181 44182 44183 44184 44185 44186 44187 44188 44189 44190 44191 44192 44193 44194 44195 44196 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.11 11.11 11.11 16.670000000000002 16.670000000000002 16.670000000000002 16.670000000000002 16.670000000000002 16.670000000000002 20.37 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 32.409999999999997 35.19 35.19 35.19 40.74 40.74 40.74 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 40.74 40.74 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 38.89 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 37.04 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 56.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 Italy 43831 43832 43833 43834 43835 43836 43837 43838 43839 43840 43841 43842 43843 43844 43845 43846 43847 43848 43849 43850 43851 43852 43853 43854 43855 43856 43857 43858 43859 43860 43861 43862 43863 43864 43865 43866 43867 43868 43869 43870 43871 43872 43873 43874 43875 43876 43877 43878 43879 43880 43881 43882 43883 43884 43885 43886 43887 43888 43889 43890 43891 43892 43893 43894 43895 43896 43897 43898 43899 43900 43901 43902 43903 43904 43905 43906 43907 43908 43909 43910 43911 43912 43913 43914 43915 43916 43917 43918 43919 43920 43921 43922 43923 43924 43925 43926 43927 43928 43929 43930 43931 43932 43933 43934 43935 43936 43937 43938 43939 43940 43941 43942 43943 43944 43945 43946 43947 43948 43949 43950 43951 43952 43953 43954 43955 43956 43957 43958 43959 43960 43961 43962 43963 43964 43965 43966 43967 43968 43969 43970 43971 43972 43973 43974 43975 43976 43977 43978 43979 43980 43981 43982 43983 43984 43985 43986 43987 43988 43989 43990 43991 43992 43993 43994 43995 43996 43997 43998 43999 44000 44001 44002 44003 44004 44005 44006 44007 44008 44009 44010 44011 44012 44013 44014 44015 44016 44017 44018 44019 44020 44021 44022 44023 44024 44025 44026 44027 44028 44029 44030 44031 44032 44033 44034 44035 44036 44037 44038 44039 44040 44041 44042 44043 44044 44045 44046 44047 44048 44049 44050 44051 44052 44053 44054 44055 44056 44057 44058 44059 44060 44061 44062 44063 44064 44065 44066 44067 44068 44069 44070 44071 44072 44073 44074 44075 44076 44077 44078 44079 44080 44081 44082 44083 44084 44085 44086 44087 44088 44089 44090 44091 44092 44093 44094 44095 44096 44097 44098 44099 44100 44101 44102 44103 44104 44105 44106 44107 44108 44109 44110 44111 44112 44113 44114 44115 44116 44117 44118 44119 44120 44121 44122 44123 44124 44125 44126 44127 44128 44129 44130 44131 44132 44133 44134 44135 44136 44137 44138 44139 44140 44141 44142 44143 44144 44145 44146 44147 44148 44149 44150 44151 44152 44153 44154 44155 44156 44157 44158 44159 44160 44161 44162 44163 44164 44165 44166 44167 44168 44169 44170 44171 44172 44173 44174 44175 44176 44177 44178 44179 44180 44181 44182 44183 44184 44185 44186 44187 44188 44189 44190 44191 44192 44193 44194 44195 44196 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 8.33 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 19.440000000000001 27.78 37.04 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 69.91 74.540000000000006 74.540000000000006 74.540000000000006 74.540000000000006 74.540000000000006 74.540000000000006 82.41 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 91.67 87.96 87.96 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 93.52 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 62.96 66.67 66.67 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 52.78 44.44 44.44 44.44 44.44 44.44 44.44 44.44 44.44 50 50 50 50 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 58.33 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 50.93 50.93 50.93 50.93 50.93 50.93 50.93 50.93 50.93 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 54.63 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 47.22 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 55.56 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 79.63 84.26 84.26 84.26 84.26 80.56 80.56 80.56 84.26 Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 25 45.83 45.83 45.83 45.83 67.13 67.13 68.98 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 71.760000000000005 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 85.19 81.94 81.94 81.94 81.94 81.94 81.94 81.94 81.94 81.94 83.33 83.33 83.33 83.33 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 75.459999999999994 75.459999999999994 75.459999999999994 75.459999999999994 71.760000000000005 68.06 68.06 68.06 68.06 68.06 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 66.67 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 57.41 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 39.35 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 55.09 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 60.65 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 64.349999999999994 58.8 58.8 58.8 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 71.3 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 France 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 8.33 11.11 11.11 11.11 11.11 31.94 31.94 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.2 46.76 46.76 54.17 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 87.96 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 76.849999999999994 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 72.22 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 51.85 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 46.3 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 48.15 46.76 46.76 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 48.61 46.76 46.76 46.76 46.76 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 43.98 43.98 43.98 43.98 43.98 43.98 43.98 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 49.54 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 78.7 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 69.44 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89 63.89

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 9 (2m 47s)

[Audio] Sis ir interesants attēls. Lielāki ierobežojumi nozīmē mazāku mobilitāti. Taču tā nav. Un Tur ir daudz faktoru un elementu, kāpēc tā nav.

Mobility Reduction

United Kingdom Ireland Spain Italy Portugal Canada Luxembourg Belgium Austria Slovenia France Netherlands Slovakia USA Romania Switzerland Finland Germany Australia Poland Greece New Zealand Lithuania Croatia Hungary Sweden Czechia Norway Denmark Bulgaria Latvia Japan Estonia South Korea 30.675999999999995 27.818857142857144 25.80114285714286 25.350857142857144 24.874285714285712 24.05714285714286 24.016571428571428 23.60285714285714 23.150857142857141 23.116 22.886285714285712 21.10857142857143 19.813142857142857 19.094285714285714 18.212 17.914285714285711 17.205142857142857 17.091999999999999 16.666285714285713 16.446857142857144 16.322285714285712 16.074285714285715 15.818857142857144 15.573142857142859 14.952000000000002 14.864000000000001 14.621714285714287 14.508571428571429 14.489142857142857 13.917142857142858 12.46 12.428000000000001 11.017142857142856 6.2857142857142856

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 10 (3m 22s)

Mobility’s reduction reduces GDP

23.60285714285714 13.917142857142858 14.621714285714287 14.489142857142857 17.091999999999999 11.017142857142856 27.818857142857144 16.322285714285712 25.80114285714286 22.886285714285712 15.573142857142859 25.350857142857144 12.46 15.818857142857144 24.016571428571428 14.952000000000002 21.10857142857143 23.150857142857141 16.446857142857144 24.874285714285712 18.212 23.116 19.813142857142857 17.205142857142857 14.864000000000001 30.675999999999995 19.094285714285714 14.508571428571429 17.914285714285711 12.428000000000001 16.666285714285713 16.074285714285715 6.2857142857142856 24.05714285714286 -6.4243842823704966 -4.1537063249065511 -5.5555555555555571 -3.2879126370350491 -4.8965478643460614 -2.9323490257775688 -8.2477152162783227 -10.963079482263424 -8.1149069917345003 -8.367361692986961 -8.8711463476679171 -3.6235355602978956 -0.82266319309721325 -1.313255361290615 -4.9624816538997862 -3.7691038115269322 -6.5904047261764305 -2.701711018372734 -7.5875266576749709 -3.8569609252560468 -5.5321932323167573 -5.1880283001720926 -2.8930899608865701 -2.8178195724253641 -9.9 -3.5 -0.8 -2.9 -4.8 -1.1000000000000001 -2.9 -1.1000000000000001 -5.4 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR SP FR CR IT LV LT LU HU NL AT PL PT RO SL SK FI SE UK US NO CH JP AU NZ KR CA

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 11 (4m 16s)

GDP’s Impact on Budget Deficit

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

-6.4244206336161938 -3.8440181972275553 -5.5555555555555571 -3.2870606806258564 -4.9032589393442549 -2.9327524305135313 2.4751519969125297 -8.2475518229251747 -10.963920409811067 -8.2317523171745961 -9.0000312067656267 -8.8711289637504791 -5.1035502958579997 -3.6221101150509867 -0.82220887800822595 -1.3138910797760701 -4.9624816538997862 -3.7961040611825609 -6.5905099010033297 -2.7234348082513264 -7.5873593158696622 -3.8999704686974042 -5.532170775706561 -5.2002692696061814 -2.8931025341266121 -2.817815418433554 -9.4 -3.4 -6.2 -1.1000000000000001 -4.2 -4.9000000000000004 -5 -9.6999999999999993 -11 -9.1999999999999993 -7.4 -9.5 -5.7 -4.5 -7.4 -4.0999999999999996 -8.1 -4.3 -8.9 -7 -5.7 -9.1999999999999993 -8.4 -6.2 -5.4 -3.1 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR SP FR CR IT CY LV LT LU HU NL AT PL PT RO SL SK FI SE

Scene 12 (4m 58s)

Does the Size of Fiscal Support matters?

GDP growth rate in 2020, % 7.2204845013748731 4.3861065138416224 5.44423346092535 1.7728572264249522 11.03370544006278 3.4900150960272138 11.028872427123924 4.129848567413041 7.7103009294197555 2.5940223181066031 6.8248555163513647 6.3795011234588692 7.9280656230670878 4.6807143933504589 4.1587270560864775 4 6.5711467205103151 4.5192778176981978 8.5545887757554304 7.6769895099565364 4.7257657605524459 2.2661937174174835 5.3460563319061984 3.795231345008085 2.9740073275675076 4.2006968782557186 4.2369754101110404 5.2882597816353591 -6.4243842823704966 -4.1537063249065511 -5.5555555555555571 -3.2879126370350491 -4.8965478643460614 -2.9323490257775688 -8.2477152162783227 -10.963079482263424 -8.1149069917345003 -8.367361692986961 -8.8711463476679171 -5.1055794782047883 -3.6235355602978956 -0.82266319309721325 -1.313255361290615 -4.9624816538997862 -7.0007286587074731 -3.7691038115269322 -6.5904047261764305 -2.701711018372734 -7.5875266576749709 -3.8569609252560468 -5.5321932323167573 -5.1880283001720926 -2.8930899608865701 -2.8178195724253641 -0.76247753542294561 -2.8702514876963789

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 13 (5m 39s)

Public Debt(%GDP) vs GDP

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

114.99 23.791 37.57 43.42 68.926000000000002 18.498000000000001 213.101 117.083 113.461 87.206999999999994 155.56200000000001 118.20099999999999 45.48 46.98 25.545999999999999 81.194999999999993 55.43 53.970999999999997 85.224000000000004 57.688000000000002 131.62799999999999 50.104999999999997 81.451999999999998 60.661000000000001 67.097999999999999 38.488999999999997 -6.4240000000000004 -3.8439999999999999 -5.556 -3.2869999999999999 -4.9029999999999996 -2.9319999999999999 -8.2479999999999993 -10.964 -8.2319999999999993 -9 -8.8710000000000004 -5.1059999999999999 -3.6240000000000001 -0.82299999999999995 -1.3140000000000001 -4.9619999999999997 -7.0010000000000003 -3.7959999999999998 -6.59 -2.7229999999999999 -7.5869999999999997 -3.9 -5.532 -5.2 -2.8929999999999998 -2.8180000000000001 BE BL Czech RP DK DE EE GR SP FR CR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PO PT RO SL SK FI SE

Scene 14 (6m 22s)

Effectiveness of the Government

GDP growth rate in 2020, % 79.807693481000001 85.576919556000007 73.076919556000007 55.769229889000002 90.865386963000006 75.480766295999999 75 74.038459778000004 92.307693481000001 92.307693481000001 90.865386963000006 53.365383147999999 55.769229889000002 89.903846740999995 75 -8.1149069917345003 -4.8965478643460614 -10.963079482263424 -8.8711463476679171 -2.8178195724253641 -2.9323490257775688 -3.6235355602978956 -0.82266319309721325 -3.2879126370350491 -2.8930899608865701 -0.76247753542294561 -8.2477152162783227 -8.367361692986961 -3.7691038115269322 -7.5875266576749709 FR DE SP IT SE EE LV LT DK FI NO GR CR NL PT

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 15 (6m 50s)

[Audio] Te atkal ir runa par lēmumu pieņemšanu.

Country specific responses

Speed Clarity and Availability of resources Size of Support

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 16 (6m 58s)

Uncertainty of the COVID-19 crisis is huge

How long will the pandemic last? How much financial support will be available? Will all debts have to be repaid? How long will central banks continue to print? Will inflation come into the life?

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 17 (7m 12s)

Has inflation returned?

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/servlet/homePageChart?from=static&

Scene 18 (7m 22s)

What does this mean for policy makers?

1) Will it be possible to refinance outstanding debts? 2) At what price? 3) Is the price payable in the long run?

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 19 (7m 33s)

Summary

Crises always surprise uninvited The COVID-19 crisis is a crisis of crises (Mother of all Crises) Response has to be holistic Financial and economic systems must be in good shape Basic principles of crisis management must be observed

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA

Scene 20 (7m 46s)

Thank you for your attention!

UNIVERSITY OF LATVIA