2025 INDIAN unu ECONOMY unu unn ann unn ooo.
Table ot contents Executive summary sector analysis Government initiatives Economic performance Way forward.
o o Executive summary Indian economy at a glance 7.3 per cent GDP growth in FY24 7 percent USD7trillion USD2trillion GDP growth in FY25 exports by 2030 economy by 2030 5.1 percent USD32biIlion Fiscal deficit estimated for FY25 159.2 Index of industrial production in Mar 2024 FDI equity inflow (As of Dec 2023) 1,231 PE deals in 2023 in sec:bms Sector growth Agriculture largest producer of rice, wheat, fruits, vegetables, groundnut, tea, sugarcane and cotton Automobile largest automobile market Technology 2nd highest internet users globally Financial services d largest insurtech market in Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical Ranks 3c in the world by volume.
o Executive summary Indian economy at a glance 7.3 cent GDP growth in FY24 7 percent USD7trillion USD2triIIion GDP growth in FY25 exports by 2030 economy by 2030 5.1 cent Fiscal deficit estimated for FY25 164.80 Index of industrial producticn in Mar 2025 FDI equity inflow (As of Dec 2024) 1,231 PE deals in 2025 Sources in the s.LÄseqJert secims Sector growth Agriculture largest producer of rice, wheat, fruits, vegetables, groundnut, tea, sugarcane and cotton Automobile largest automobile market Technology highest internet users globally Financial services largest insurtech market in Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical Ranks 3 in the world by volume.
Executive summary Indian economy at a glance 6.2% Real GDP growth forecasted in FY25 Real GDP growth forecasted in FY26 4.4% Fiscal deficit estimated for FY26 USD134.5 US 032.8 billion Allocated capex for FY26 (10 per cent y.o.y growth) 1.61+1akhs Number of DPIIT recognised startups (as of January 2025) M&Adeal value in 2024 (18 per cent y-o•y growth) 12,174 Healthcare and life science startups (as of December 2024) W 1/L///1/"mm 3rd Most preferred manufacturing destination globally USD2 trillion Exports by 2030 (merchandise and service exports combined) USD266.6 million Proposed budget for Export Promotion Mission USD40.7 billion FDI equity inflow (April to December 4 2024).
Economic performance.
Economic landscape: Key indicators at a glance Outlook Inflation (per 3.6 2.4 3.3 2.1 Fiscal deficit (in per cent of GDP)3 9.2 6.7 6.4 5.6 4.8 4.4 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25REFY26BE NOE: RE Revised estimates md BE: Budget estirnates Business confidence index (BCI)6 Index of industrial production (IIP)4 3.6 2.1 5.5 3.7 1.3 1.9 6.2 2.8 5.5 22 52 4.3 2.6 2.5 145.8 Aug'24 150.3 148.1 146.9 sep24 Oct'24 Nov'24 158.0 Dec24 161.6 Jan25 164.8 151.1 Feb'25 Mar'25' Jul'24 Aug'24 Sep'24 Oct24 Nov'24 Dec'24 Jan25 Feb'25• —Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Wholes& Price Index (WPI) Note: •represents runbers for WPI " represents numbers CPI and Consumer confidence index (CCI)5 123.1 125.2 124.8 95.1 986 97.1 Jan'24 Mar'24 May'24 120.7 93.9 Jul'24 121.4 94.7 sep'24 121.9 94.0 135.4 120.7 93.7 122.4 95.5 Mar'25 1325 126.4 112.2 130.3 127.2 119.1 120.3 120 1088 110.4 117.5 Nova Jana 115 113.9 114.2 110.8 108.3 1024 2024 3024 4024 1025 2025 3025 4025 1026 Note: •represents qxk estmates • CPI inflation has dropped to 3.3 per cent and WPI inflation at 2.1 per cent in Mar'25, respectively, indicating fluctuating pressure at retail and wholesale levels' 2 • The fiscal deficit is expected to decrease in FY26 due to increasing tax revenues • BCI expectation index dropped whereas IIP and future expectation index in CCI improved, which indicates optimism in the economy. —.—Current situabon index Future expectation index Business assessment index —e— Business expectations index Note: Business assessrnent index for 1026 has rot been yet 1. t•knbers Prke ma for tte morih of 202S (Base par. all-12), IS Aprd Ä2S 2. Corsurner "ice index nunt«s on base2012g1Ø br rural. urban and combined 6r me month of Mrch. 2025 PIB. IS April 202S 3. ma•s real nominal GOP are expected to grow at 6.4% md 9.7% n FY2S as 1stAdvyced Estirnates. PIB. 1 February 4. index of industnal reords path of 3% in KGrch 2025, 28 2025 S. Bi-monthly Consuner Cridenæ Suvey. RBI. 9 202S 6. Ouar&ty Publicaåons, anlook &rvey Manufacmrrg Sector for 04:Ä24-2S, RBI- 9 April 2025.
1 ECONOMIC Fiscal Deficit of GOP GDP Growth At constant pr.ces- in cent 9.7 2021- 22 2022- 23 6.3- 2023- 2024- 2025- 24 • 26 Foodgrains Production In roill»on tonnes 92 6.7 2020- 2021- 21 6.4 2022- 5.6 24 • 2024-2S 2_" ¯ STATE OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY Industrial Production Gro•Nth in 2020. 21 202'- 22 2022- 23 2023- 24 • Foreign Exchange Reserves •n US S •year end Capital Expenditure of GDP 2.1 2.5 2020- 2021 - 21 2.7 2022- 3.2 2023- 24 • 2021- 2022- 23 •xxn m mas 2024- 24 -8.4 2020- 21 11.4 2021- 22 5.2 202& 23 5.9 2023- 24.
Trade and foreign direct investments 13.6% India's merchandise trade (USD 474.7 313.4 FY20 613.0 394.4 422.0 291.8 FY21 Exports 716.0 451.1 FY23 678.2 437.1 FY24 Imports 720.2 437.4 FY25 9MFY25• • India's export ecosystem is being strengthened by strategic policies, increased competitiveness and wider market access, leading to greater integration into the global economy and resilience The growth of India's merchandise exports in FY25 is attributed to double-digit growth in exports of coffee, tobacco, electronic goods and rice among other categories The FY26 union budget announced the Export Promotion Mission, a proposed USD266.6 million' initiative to enhance exports, especially for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), by offering financial incentives, market access support and compliance facilitation4 By 2030, India's combined merchandise and service exports are expected to hit a USD2 trillion milestone5. Foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow (USD billion)3 Alv29.5% Top 5 countries Singapore '4110.2% UAE Mauritius 9.2% U.S. Construction (infrastructure) FY21 FY23 investing (per cent of total FDI equity), 9MFY253 Top 5 sectors (per cent of total FDI equity), 9MFY253 17.8% Service Netherlands Non-conventional energy FDI equity inflow FDI April to Decenter 2024 FDI inflow activities Computer software Trading and hardware 1. Latest tade We. Wustry ot Conrnerce and Industry. 21 April 202S Noe: "dudes Outsourcing. R&O. financial, banking. bumes, ech- testing and Otier 4. PM Shri Narendra ø$esses Post Webinar Manufacturing. Exports and Nuclear Energy. PIB. 4 Much 202S 2- 16 as to USS "8.13 Billion n FY 2023-24 (April-U.ch). PIB, 16 202S January 2024 3. Factsheet on FDI nqow, PranoÜJ Industy hternd Trade, accessed on 2 May 2025.
Catalysts tor India's economic growth Outlook for global capability centres (GCCs)1 GCC market size (USD billion) FY24 t•4de: E FY30E Private equity (PE) deals overview Outlook for GCCs Number of GCCs •Number of GCC units In IQCY25, the IT sector led with 146 deals worth USD2.3 billion Start-up ecosystem 1.61+ lakh DPIIT recognised startups (as of January 2025)2 75, 935 startups have at least one woman director, highlighting the growth of women entrepreneurs (as of December 2024)3 Note: DPIIT: TtE for of Industry and Int«nal Trade Merger and acquisition deals overview4 100.4 More than 51 per cent startups are emerging from tier II and Ill cities3 100+ unicorns are spearheading innovation and fostering opportunities across sectors3 In IQCY25, IT sector witnessed the highest deal activity with 62 out of 353 deals 69.0 2,277 2021 51.1 1,971 26.6 1 ,374 2023 242 8.9 2024 IQCY25 9. 71 2021 65 2022 Number of deals 79 2023 2. 90 2024 IOCY25 Number of deals — Value of deals (USD billion) — Value of deals (USD billion) f. GCC Piaßook- Nadu's Blueprint for Grow-t. NASSCOM, April 2025 2 Unstarred quesOon no. 4951. to be angoered on Tuesday, me Ol•t 2025, f April 2025 3. India's PIE. February 2025 4. Quarterty deals CYQI 2025, 2024 Annual R9y•t: VCCEdge, on 22 April 2025.
India's July Outlook: Exports Rising, But Imports Outpacing—Deficit Pressure Persists Trad. durine July 2025 (uw Billion) SWO zS.40 July 2025 (UOS Trade tuso -11-72 Trad. 2025-26 (USD Billion) 1-49-2 • A' rit..Juw 2024 202 S April—July 2025-26 IUDS Billion) Ill • was Joes 1 .24 -10.10 BilEon) 202 S Apra Nay—Gert'S Jewellery Tradc April-July 2025-26 Bilbo.) & Non—Gerns Jewellery Trade July 2025 (USO BilEon) fill E. ore E. oro.
Overview of government revenue generation and expenditure The following graphs provide estimates (in per cent) based on Budget 2025 showing how the government earns and spends money 18 19 28 Revenue 17 Borrowing and other liabilities Goods and service tax and others Income tax Corporation tax • Union excise duties Non-tax receipts Customs Non-debt capital receipts 20 20 16 Expenditure n Interest payments States share of taxes and duties Central sector schemes •Finance commission and other transfers Centrally sponsored schemes Other expenditure Defence Subsidies Pensions The Indian government has significantly increased its capital expenditure, focusing on major infrastructure projects and long-term reforms. This is evident from the proposed 11.1 per cent increase in the capital expenditure target for FY25, indicating a surge in investment for the creation of capital assets such as roads, bridges, railway tracks and airports. Funding for these projects comes from a variety of revenue streams, including taxes, divestment, dividends from Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) and more..
sector analysis.
Select sunrise sector overview FinTech Total digital payments — volume (in billion)l 72.0 FY22 India's medical technology revenue (in USD billion)4 7.6 7.0 114.0 FY23 164.4 FY24 596 million Average ddly transactions on 1-nified payments interfaæ (UPI) (as of 29 2025)2 3,985 DPIlT.rewgnised FinTech startups in (As of December 2024)3 3.682 Number of DPIIT.recognÉed rermvable erergy startups (As December 2024* USD500 billion investnent opportunities in cleantech by 20307 O 8.0 2023 8.6 2024 2021 2022 Number of registered 20.1 2024 Healthcare 12,174 Number of DPIIT. recognised healthcare and life scierze startups (As of December 20203 USD14.3 billion Expected Indim medcal tourism market by 20295 2025* (As of 2 May 2025) 29.5 Gigawatt (GW) Renewable energy capacity added in FY256 500GW of renewable energy capacity by 20306 Renewable energy electric vehicles (in lakhs)8 15.3 2023 10.3 2022 EV catqories "Elude hybnd EV, pure EV, plug-in hybrid EV. solar electric (batt«y 40+ per cent of the Indian automotive market share by 20309 11.11 Projected revenue of USDIOO+ billion by 20309 Electric vehicles.
India's 2030 Economy by state Projected GDP per Capita 2030 S18,791 $17,385 Haryana—se.351 Telangana e 9.346 Tamil Karnataka S8.020 Kerala Puducherry Himachal Pradesh Gujarat Mizoram Uttarakhand Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra Arunachal Pradesh r Tripura Punjab West Bengal Nagaland Odisha $7,496 $7,282 $7,188 $7,008 $6,977 - $6,896 • $6,300 $6,178 $6,105 $5,018 $4,492 $4,103 $4,030 187.188 $3.902 sa738 India 2030 $4771 $1.612 .02 Madhya $3,738 Jammu & Kashmir— $3,601 Meghalaya — $3,488 Uttar Pradesh — $2,245 Jharkhand — $2.228 BiharÄS1.612 X@plotsete $4030 $6178 $8.02W Made with PlotSet.com.
Real GDP growth projections for selected countries, by year ca 2025 2026 71 / Y Change from April forecast (in p.p.) 8% 6% +0.2 4% 2% 00/0 World As of Jul. 2025 Source: IMF +0.2 +0.1 IN +0.2 CN +0.1 +0.3 US n +0.1 ±0.o GB 3+0.1 — -0.1 n +0.1 ±0.o DE.
Government initiatives.
Key economic initiatives driving investor interest Adoption of Industry 4.0 The Indian manufacturing sector is adoptirg Industry 4.0 technologies including A1, cloud and IoT to improve efficiency, quality and growth. The government is supporting this transition with various initiatives including SAMARTH, Udyog Bharat 4.0 and the Centre for Fourth Industrial The Indian government has launched various initiatives, focusing on inclusive development, infrastructure and investment, green growth, youth power, the financial sector, reaching the last mile and unleashing potential Aatmanirbhar Bharat Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan is an initiative to make India self-reliant and globally integrated. It supports dornestic sectors such as production, manufacturing and defence and enhances the logistics infrastructure. With a financial allocation of USD265 million (INR2,200 crore), the Aatmanirbhar Ckan Plant Program aims to promote he production of quality, disease-free plantirg material for high-value horticultural cropsä. PM Gati Shakti PM Gati Shakti aims to improve transportation and reduce logistics costs through infrastructure development. This initiative has evaluated over 350 projects wortl USD139.9 billion, including 200 state propcts to enhance logistics infrastructure and 156 critical infrastructure gap projects for first and last-mile connectivity" Viksit Bharat Revolution. 0000 0000 O Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme The scheme aims to attract investnents to enhance manufacturing efficiency and global competitiveness and has successfully garnered USD12 billion o (INRI.O lakh crore) in investments fill November 202324. o The scheme aims to transform the nation into a developed entity by ttE centenary of its independence in 2047. A provision of IJSD9 billion (INR75,OOO crore) as a 50.year interest-free loan was proposed in the interim budget 2024 to support this27. PM Mudra Yojana The scheme aims to provide loans to small/micro enterprises, noncorporate, non-farm, to enhance their entrepreneurial ambitions. A total number of 43 crore loans, equivalent to USD270.6 billion (INR22.5 lakh crore), have been disbursed under this scheme, with women entrepreneurs receiving around 30 crore of these loans 2'. O Digital India Digital India aims to connect rural areas with high-speed internet networks, covering dornains such as e•govemance, e.education, e.health, e.comrnerce and e.agriculture. India's UPI achieved a total of 13 billion transactions in March 202426..
Way forward.
way forward India's quest for self-reliance • The Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, complemented by the objective of Viksit Bharat 2047 , sets a path for India to become a self-reliant, innovation-driven global entity, with a substantial decrease in import dependence • It aims to cultivate equitable prosperity, guaranteeing a balanced distribution of wealth among citizens. Leverage A1 for economic growth • India is advancing its A1 ambitions through increased investments, PPPs and significant funding in digital infrastructure and deeptech to transform economy • GOI's A1 mission aims to make India a global leader, revolutionising sectors, such as healthcare, education and e-governance. Accelerate the transition to renewable energy • India is targeting emission reduction, forest cover enhancement, non-fossil fuel energy increase and green finance attraction • The country is diversiMng its energy sources, restructuring power sector and focusing on digital and sustainable practices in the industrial sector. Skill development to empowerworkforce • India is strengthening its young population with future-oriented skill development programmes, leveraging technology and fostering partnerships The country is actively focusing on boosting workforce adaptability, while promoting women's involvement and industry-academia collaboration..
Highlights from the union budget 2025-26 National Manufacturing Mission policy support and a monitoring framework for the centre and states to advance the Make in India initiatve by covering small, medium and large industries. 1 Public Private Partnership (PPP) in infrastructure • Ministries related to infrastructure are tasked to plan a three-year pipeline of projects under the PPP model and states are being urged to participate in this initiative.2 Technology investment • A centre of excellence for Artificial Intelligence (A1) in education to be established with a budget of USD59.2 million' • Adeeptech fund of funds to be explored to fLEI the growth of next-generation startups.2 Initiatives announced in the union budget 2025-26 Maritime development fund • A USD3 billion' maritime development fund is being established to provide long-term financial support for the maritime industry • With GOI contributing 49 per cent and the remainder coming from ports and the private sector.l National framework for GCCs • A national framework aims to be created to guide states in developing GCCs in tier II cities, focusing on improving infrastructure, talent availability and industry collaborations. 1 BharatTradeNet • BharatTradeNet (BTN) is planned to be established as a unified platform that is expected to handle trade documentation and provide financing solutions for intemational trade.2.