History of probability

Introduction Early Beginnings Blaise Pascal & Pierre De Fermet Probability in Games 20th Century developments Modern Applications Challenges And Contraversies Conclusion.

Probability is simply how likely something is to happen. Whenever we're unsure about the outcome of an event, we can talk about the probabilities of certain outcome show likely they are. The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics. The modern mathematical theory of probability has its roots in attempts to analyze games of chance by Gerolamo Cardano in the sixteenth century, and by Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal in the seventeenth century.

The mathematical methods of probability arose in the investigations first of Gerolamo Cardano in the 1560s (not published until 100 years later), and then in the correspondence Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal (1654) on such questions as the fair division of the stake in an interrupted game of chance..

Blaise Pascal was a French philosopher, mathematician, scientist, inventor, and theologian. In mathematics, he was an early pioneer in the fields of game theory and probability theory. In philosophy he was an early pioneer in existentialism. As a writer on theology and religion he was a defender of Christianity..

Pierre de Fermat was a well-known mathematician in the 17th century in France. Not many records were kept to record information such as how Pierre de Fermat was educated. It is not known if he had a tutor that his wealthy father paid for or if his education was encouraged by another person that was interested in math, but he went to the University of Orleans and earned his civil law degree. It was after earning his degree and moving to Bordeaux that Fermat began creating lifelong friendships, with those such as Jean de Beamat and Etienne d'Espagnet, that encouraged his work in mathematics..

The game theory is said to be the science of strategies which comes under the probability distribution. It determines logical as well as mathematical actions that should be taken by the players in order to obtain the best possible outcomes for themselves in the games. Some games use probability to determine the likelihood of certain events occurring. For example, a game might use probability to determine the chances of a player successfully hitting a target. Chance-based mini-games: Many games feature mini-games or side activities that rely on chance..

Probability and statistics became closely connected through the work on hypothesis testing of R. A. Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, which is now widely applied in biological and psychological experiments and in clinical trials of drugs, as well as in economics and elsewhere. A hypothesis, for example that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to a probability distribution that would be observed if the hypothesis is true. If observations approximately agree with the hypothesis, it is confirmed, if not, the hypothesis is rejected..

An example of the use of probability theory in equity trading is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices, which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely can send that commodity's prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are neither assessed independently nor necessarily rationally. The theory of behavioral finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict..

Statistics and probability are part of school math.But in reality ,there are still many students who get poor grades in subject. This study aims to find out on which indicators student experience difficulties in statistics and probability.The research method used was quasi-experimental with a total sample of 115 respondent. The result show that respondent’s difficulties in statistics and probability were difficulties in probabilistic reasoning , combinatoric reasoning and proof of variability in random variables. Based on the result obtained,to be able to understand statistic and probability properly, good mathematical logical thinking skill are needed.

Probability helps people understand which choices are safe and which choices are risky. ofcourse, this task is much easier when we have fluent knowledge of probability . By learning about probability ,we can learn about the likehood of future events ,and prepare accordingly. For all the hypotheses that have to deal with uncertainty,the theory of probability will measure the degree of possibility will measure the degree of probability of such hypothesis,and will assign to the hypothesis a certain value of probability..

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