ECONOMY

ECONOMY. 1. Praveen Chakravarty Chairman, Data Analytics Department All India Congress Committee.

2. What is GDP?. India's GDP Growth At 20' t-f2 prices 5.6 5.7 5.2 3.1 QI 02 03 04 01 02 03 04 2018-19 2019-20 2018. 19 20 KBK IntoqraohiCS.

What is GDP?. 3. Which village is richer? Kutcha road or pucca road? More people or less people?.

GDP measures economic wellbeing. 4. Whichever village has higher GDP is the richer village GDP shows economic activity of a particular place – village, district, state or country If GDP is higher, economic activity in that place is higher and it is better off How do we measure GDP? We can take the income earned of every household in the village and add it up. It has to include ALL income – rent, agriculture, business etc Or we can measure all expenditure of every household in the village – spending on family, buying fertiliser , tractors, building water tanks etc..

GDP Components. 5. GDP = People + Government + Private + Foreign People - People buy goods and services; 65 % of GDP Government – Government builds roads/bridges, spends on schemes; 25 % of GDP Private sector – Factories, offices, salaries, raw materials; 10% of GDP Foreign – ; buy and sell from foreign countries; -1 % of GDP Need all four parts to work together If people spend less -> private sector will not invest If government spends more -> private sector will not have money to spend If foreign trade is low -> people will not get jobs and spend less.

GDP growth. 6. In developing countries like India, GDP increases every year. But in 2020, GDP declined for the first time in 70 years. Health of economy is measured as GDP growth, not total GDP When people say GDP is falling It means GDP growth is falling, not total GDP.

But does GDP matter to aam aadmi ?. 7. Does GDP growth produce jobs & incomes for the aam aadmi ? If GDP growth is high, will it create more jobs for people?.

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What creates jobs?. 11. If more cars produced, GDP goes up but jobs may not Industrial factories & big manufacturing plants do not create many jobs Leather, Textiles, Construction, Gems are sectors that create jobs Make in India will not create jobs; Make for World will create jobs.

12. Depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar e30 05 eso 00 05 00 09 00 Annual % change e95 0.4% 5.1% 4.9% -3.8% 2.1% -22% 3.5% 4.4% -19% -3.7% -13% -1.9% -2.6% -9.1% -2.2% -2.9% -1.9% 2c02 2w3 2c05 2006 2m7 2038 2w9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: Google Finance Annual % change for each year are colored from red to green statsofindia.in.

Strong rupee = Strong nation?. 13. Myth of strong rupee strong nation If rupee is weak, India can export more Indian goods will be cheaper for foreigners. They will buy more If India exports more, it creates more jobs in India Footwear, Textiles are the most labour intensive and most export oriented Weak rupee means imports are more expensive Oil, petrol, diesel prices will go up because India imports these items If oil prices increase, prices of all goods in India will increase. Mehengai . More complex than strong rupee = strong nation.

14. What is Inflation?. High food prices at heart of India's inflation problem.

Are Inflation and Mehengai the same?. 15. Inflation has come down. But price of onion has not reduced.

Are Inflation and Mehengai the same?. 16.

Finance Minister & Onions. 17.

Government Budgets. 18. How does Union government get money? How does Union government spend money? Where do State governments get money? Where do State governments spend money?.

Union Government Finances. 19. Union government collects roughly Rs.1 lakh from every Indian family as taxes every year Includes income tax, GST, petrol cess etc . * Modi govt has collected 1 lakh rupees in petrol/diesel taxes alone from every Indian family over the last 7 years It spends 30,000 Rs. for every Indian family in welfare PDS, Fertiliser , Gas, Education, Health, NREGA and other welfare schemes combined It spends 1.3 lakh per family for all other expenses Defence , Internal Security, Foreign Affairs, Energy, Industry, Transport, Urban Development etc..

Union Government Finances. 20. Union government collects 1 lakh from every family and spends 1.6 lakhs per family Debt of 60 ,000 Rs per family every year Also called Revenue Deficit Union government borrows this amount every year So, government finances are like our household finances, right? NO. Governments can “print” money that households cannot.

State Government Finances. 21. States get money from 3 sources Taxes within each state Share of taxes from Centre Grants and Aid from Centre After GST, states are entirely dependent on Centre for all taxes. No powers for states. Centre takes most revenues for itself; Gives states very little States stuck with no money; Dependent on Centre even for borrowing.

GST impacts every Indian; Not budget. 22. GST is indirect tax; Affects rich and poor the same Income tax is different for rich and poor; GST tax is same GST rates are decided by GST Council Public should demand low GST rates and high income tax rates But media is more focused on budget and not on GST.

23. India’s development did not begin only after 2014.

24. SURVEYS & SAMPLE SIZE.

Surveys and Sample Size. 25. If an assembly constituency has 3 lakh voters, how many people should we survey to get proper trends? 1000 people 10,000 people 1 lakh people Sample size does not matter as much What matters is randomisation , stratification & frequency US President election surveys – 3000 people surveyed out of 20 crore (200mn) voters.

26. SURVEYS & SAMPLE SIZE.

27. Economics of NYAY. —OOO'ZL>.

28. What if Congress party had won the 2019 elections and implemented NYAY before Covid hit?.

THANK YOU. 29. Praveen Chakravarty Chairman, Data Analytics Department All India Congress Committee.