Decision Making

Decision Making. Crew Resource Management. WUS9N11VUOJ'VZib.

Decision Making – Training Objectives. This module will examine: Decision making theory Application of decision making processes Challenges faced in decision making.

Decision Making: Definition. [image] and sentence mat means.

Aeronautical Decision Making. A systematic approach to the mental process used by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances. It’s what a pilot intends to do, based on the latest information that he or she has. - U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.

ADM vs Conventional Decisions. CONVENTIONAL DECISION AERONAUTICAL DECISION KNOWLEDGE TECHNICAL KNOWLEDGE + + EXPERIENCE EXPERIENCE + + JUDGEMENT GOOD JUDGEMENT = + DECISION RISK ASSESSMENT = DECISION.

Decision Making: Consider This. The regulatory climate is part of the environment. It affects communications, decision making, control, and coordination..

Decision Making: Consider This. Decision events differ enormously. Consider these variables: What each individual event demands of the crew What options and supports exist in standard procedures and policies for making decisions Features that may make the situation complex. Crew decision making is not one thing. Crews make many different kinds of decisions, but all must involve situation assessment, choice among alternatives, and assessment of risk ..

Decision Making. Problem Definition / Diagnosis Defining a problem is dependent upon one’s situational awareness and attending to critical information. It also relies upon avoiding perception errors. Gathering information is paramount when identifying a problem. Review causal factors with other crew members..

Decision Making. 2. Option Generation Generating options through an unbiased collective effort where possible. Stating alternative options. Seeking opinions from crew members..

Decision Making. 3. Risk Assessment Assessing risks by way of an unbiased and collective effort where possible, subject to time available. Considering and sharing risks of alternative options. Talking about potential risks in terms of crew limitations. 4. Option Selection Confirming and stating selected option and/or agreed upon action..

Decision Making: The 5th Element. Outcome Review Incorporating a measure of evaluation after a decision is implemented. Checking outcomes against a plan..

Decision Making: Good Practices. Review causal factors with other crew members State alternative courses of action Consider and share estimated risk of alternative courses of action Check outcome against plan.

Decision Making: Poor Practices. No discussion of probable causes Not searching for information Inadequate discussion of limiting factors with crew Failure to check selected outcome against the goal.

Decision Making. Fly Gather Information Summarize Options Take Recommendations Announce the Decision Brief the Plan Identify Threats, discuss mitigation strategies..

Decision Making in the Multi-Crew Environment. Fly the aircraft first. Confirm which pilot is to fly the aircraft (PF). This might be included in prior briefing such as before take-off. The PF will pay attention to the aircraft and monitor/control the aircraft’s path, position and altitude. Make sure that there is 100% understanding about who is doing what: “You have the airplane, you have ATC; I’ll go ahead the QRH checklist.”.

Recognition Primed Decision Making. The Klein Recognition Primed Decision Making model explains how individuals make quick and effective decisions in complex situations, particularly under time pressure and ambiguous conditions. This model illustrates how people actually make decisions..

Recognition Primed Decision Making: RPD. The RPD model combines pattern matching to relate current situations to past experiences, allowing decision-makers to identify plausible courses of action. It involves an evaluation process where individuals mentally simulate potential outcomes to assess the viability of their choices. This model is commonly employed by proficient personnel in high-risk environments, such as military settings, enhancing operational tempo and adaptability. Overall, the RPD model enables faster decision-making by leveraging experience and intuition, making it particularly useful in dynamic and uncertain contexts..

Recognition Primed Decision Making: RPD. RPD reveals a critical difference between experts and novices when presented with recurring situations. Experienced people will generally be able to come up with a quicker decision because the current situation may match a prototypical situation they have encountered before. Novices, lacking this experience, must cycle through different possibilities, and tend to use the first course of action that they believe will work. The inexperienced also have the tendencies of using trial and error through their imagination..

RPD: Challenges. The limitations of RPD include: The need for extensive experience among decision-makers (in order to correctly recognize the salient features of a problem and model solutions). The problem of the failure of recognition and modeling in unusual or misidentified circumstances..

RPD: Application. [image] to affect the Situation using your Mental generates Cues Simulation which you •sess by Action Scripts Pattems that let you recognize.

RPD: Application. In Variation 1, decision makers recognize the situation as typical: a scenario where both the situational detail and the detail of relevant courses of action are known. Variation 1 is therefore essentially an “If… then…” reaction. A given situation will lead to an immediate course of action as a function of the situation's typicality. More experienced decision makers are more likely to have the knowledge of both prototypical situations and established courses of action that is required for an RPD strategy to qualify as Variation 1..

RPD: Application. Variation 2 occurs when the decision maker diagnoses an unknown situation to choose from a known selection of courses of action. Variation 2 takes the form of “If (???)... then...,” a phrase which implies the decision maker's specific knowledge of available courses of action but lack of knowledge regarding the parameters of the situation. In order to prevent situational complications and the accrual of misinformation, the decision maker models possible details of the situation carefully and then chooses the most relevant known course of action..

RPD: Application. In Variation 3, the decision maker is knowledgeable of the situation but unaware of the proper course of action. The decision maker therefore implements a mental trial and error simulation to develop the most effective course of action. Variation 3 takes the form of “If... then... (???)” wherein the decision maker models outcomes of new or uncommon courses of action. The decision maker will cycle through different courses of action until a course of action appears appropriate to the goals and priorities of the situation. Due to the time constraint fundamental to the RPD model, the decision maker will choose the first course of action which appears appropriate to the situation..

Seeking Information. Strategies for seeking information: 1. Identify the Purpose of Your Inquiry Clearly define what you’re trying to find out. Understanding your goal (eg: solving a problem, making a decision) helps you narrow your search and select the most appropriate sources. Use Reliable and Credible Sources Apply an amount of healthy skepticism when evaluating the information you’re gathering..

Seeking Information. Check Different Perspectives To gather comprehensive information, look at different viewpoints on a topic. Seeking diverse perspectives helps you gain a more rounded understanding of an issue or situation..

Evaluating Information. Strategies for evaluating information: Assess credibility and authoritativeness Is the source reputable? Check for accuracy and consistency Cross-check and fact check. 3. Evaluate Objectivity and Bias Determine how the information is presented.

Evaluating Information. Finally, Use Evaluation Tools Use critical thinking frameworks such as these, in order to evaluate sources systematically:.

Biases: the downfall of decision quality.. Cognitive Biases: Confirmation Bias: People tend to seek information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, while ignoring information that contradicts them. This can limit the scope of available information and lead to poor decisions based on incomplete or skewed evidence. Anchoring Bias: Individuals often rely too heavily on the first piece of information (the "anchor") when making decisions. This can lead to decisions being disproportionately influenced by that initial information, even if it is irrelevant or incorrect. Overconfidence Bias: Overestimating one’s abilities or the accuracy of one’s knowledge can lead to overly risky decisions or ignoring crucial data that might contradict one's confidence..

Biases: the downfall of decision quality.. Emotional Biases: Affective Forecasting Bias: People often misjudge how they will feel about the outcomes of their decisions. This can result in choices that prioritize short-term emotional comfort over long-term well-being or rational analysis. Loss Aversion: People tend to prefer avoiding losses more strongly than acquiring equivalent gains. This bias can lead to overly cautious decisions, where the fear of losing outweighs the potential for gaining something valuable. Sunk Cost Fallacy: Emotional attachment to previous investments (time, money, effort) can lead individuals to continue with a failing course of action to justify those past investments, rather than cutting their losses and moving on..

Biases: the downfall of decision quality.. Social Biases: Groupthink: In group decision-making, the desire for harmony and conformity within the group can suppress dissenting opinions, leading to poor decisions. Groupthink tends to reduce critical thinking and results in decisions that lack creativity or a thorough analysis. In-Group Bias: Favoring people within one’s own group over those outside it can skew decision-making processes, potentially leading to discrimination or overlooking better alternatives that come from outside the group..

Biases: the downfall of decision quality.. Risk Bias: Risk Aversion: Decision-makers who are risk-averse may make overly cautious decisions, avoiding beneficial opportunities due to an exaggerated fear of failure. This can hinder innovation or the pursuit of advantageous opportunities. Risk-Seeking: Conversely, some individuals may take on excessive risks to compensate for past losses or out of a desire to obtain a bigger reward. This can lead to decisions that put individuals or organizations in jeopardy..

Consequences of Bias on Decision Quality. Suboptimal Outcomes: Biases can result in decisions that are not based on the best available evidence or a rational analysis of the situation. This can lead to inefficient, ineffective, or even dangerous outcomes. Missed Opportunities: Bias can cause individuals or groups to overlook or dismiss valuable opportunities because they are overly focused on negative outcomes or irrelevant factors. Inequity and Injustice: Social and cultural biases can perpetuate discrimination, leading to inequitable decisions that disadvantage certain groups. Increased Errors: Cognitive biases can lead people to make errors in judgement, such as misinterpreting data or failing to consider alternative viewpoints..

Decision Making: Criticality and Time. Pilots’ decisions differ in the degrees to which they call on various cognitive processes, depending on the decision structure and task conditions. NASA divided different types of decisions into 4 areas, depending on criticality and time available to make the decision..

Criticality vs Time. Example: Engine failure at or near V1 Crisis Decisions Automatic Decision Response Trained for with high frequency. Like having a canned decision ready and briefed. Crew members are aware of expectations and roles. Usually handled well..

Criticality vs Time. Strategic Decisions Analytical Decision Process IE: During cruise the right AC bus loses power. Statistically a problem area industry wide. Due to rushing, deferring to pre-flight contingency plans, etc. Trained for during LOFT.

Criticality vs Time. Routine Decisions Analytical Decision Process IE: Descending through FL250 the crew is advised of moderate to severe icing FL200-15’000ft These types of decisions are made routinely. Decision is based on: Rules Regulations Procedures Experience.

Criticality vs Time. Tactical Decisions IE: There’s a line of thunderstorms 300 miles down track. The situation is neither immediately critical nor requiring immediate action. Defer the decision until closer as the situation may change..

Cognitive Factors affect Decision Quality. Cognitive factors that affect decision quality are mental processes and biases that influence how individuals make decisions. Here are some select cognitive factors: Attention and Focus Selective Attention: The ability to focus on relevant information while ignoring distractions. Poor attention can lead to missing critical details. Cognitive Load: The amount of mental effort required to process information. High cognitive load can reduce decision-making effectiveness..

Cognitive Factors affect Decision Quality. Memory Working Memory: The capacity to hold and manipulate information over short periods. A limited working memory can hinder the ability to evaluate complex options. Recall Bias: The tendency to rely on memory, which can be distorted by past experiences or emotions, potentially leading to poor decisions. Heuristics (Mental Shortcuts) Availability Heuristic: The tendency to base decisions on information that is most readily available in memory, which may not be the most relevant or accurate. Representativeness Heuristic: The tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how similar it is to a prototype, which can lead to overgeneralization and errors..

Cognitive Factors affect Decision Quality. Perception and Interpretation Framing Effect: The way information is presented can affect decision-making. For example, people may make different choices depending on whether a scenario is framed in terms of gains or losses. Anchoring Bias: The reliance on the first piece of information encountered (the "anchor") when making decisions, which can skew judgment. Confirmation Bias: The tendency to seek out information that supports pre-existing beliefs, rather than considering all available evidence..

Cognitive Factors affect Decision Quality. Emotional Influences Affective Forecasting: The ability to predict how future events will make you feel. Overestimating emotional reactions can lead to poor decisions, especially in situations involving risk or uncertainty. Mood: Current emotional states can affect judgment. For instance, people in a positive mood may make riskier decisions, while those in a negative mood may be more cautious. Cognitive Dissonance The discomfort experienced when holding two conflicting beliefs or engaging in behavior that contradicts one's beliefs. To reduce dissonance, people may make biased decisions or avoid information that challenges their views..

Cognitive Factors affect Decision Quality. Overconfidence The tendency to overestimate one's own abilities, knowledge, or the accuracy of one's judgments. Overconfidence can result in poor decision-making, particularly in complex or uncertain situations. Intuition vs. Rationality Intuitive Decision-Making: Decisions based on gut feelings or instincts, which can be effective in familiar situations but may lead to poor choices in novel or complex contexts. Rational Decision-Making: Involves systematic analysis of options and consequences. While more time-consuming, it can lead to higher-quality decisions when dealing with complex problems..

Impaired Judgement: The effect of fatigue on decision making.

Impaired Judgement: The effect of fatigue on decision making.

Impaired Judgement: The effect of fatigue on decision making.

Conclusion. Use time to your advantage. Create time when necessary. Make the best choices you can, considering the information that you have and the scope of the Most importantly, Look before you Leap!.